![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() The recently agreed energy pact between Russia and Ukraine could help reverse this, if it sticks. Further, random geo-political factors, such as the situation in Ukraine, clearly depressed activity. There is certainly an argument that the statistics may have understated actual performance, since economic data is frequently revised significantly over time. It assumes that the underlying situation is better than the recently reported numbers, that reforms are slowly taking hold, and that the scare of the last few months spurs fresh actions to stimulate the European economies and undertake further necessary reforms. Scenario 1: It was just a glitch (20% probability?) ![]() No one can be certain of the path from here, so I offer three potential scenarios that broadly reflect the range of potential outcomes. The momentum of earlier in 2014 has largely disappeared. Europe is struggling economically and politically in a way that its leaders had hoped was behind it. ![]()
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